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unleasHell
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32
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 10:42 am Post subject: | | | Josh Shapiro is the clear cut choice according to Harry Enten on CNN. He outperformed Biden in 2020 by 14 points. He said picking Shapiro it will boost there chances of winning by 30%. Kelly and Walz don't come close. PA has 19 elecoral votes. If you win PA the race is likely over for Trump.
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ChickenStu
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 10:44 am Post subject: | | | | 32 wrote: | | Josh Shapiro is the clear cut choice according to Harry Enten on CNN. He outperformed Biden in 2020 by 14 points. He said picking Shapiro it will boost there chances of winning by 30%. Kelly and Walz don't come close. PA has 19 elecoral votes. If you win PA the race is likely over for Trump. |
If the campaign truly thinks it's a toss-up (or worse) without him, then yeah, you almost have to do it. However, the poll today has Harris up 4 points there. If they think they can get PA without him, then I think Kelly is the preferable choice nationwide, and it likely delivers AZ too. |
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DaMuleRules
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 10:48 am Post subject: | | | | ChickenStu wrote: | | 32 wrote: | | Josh Shapiro is the clear cut choice according to Harry Enten on CNN. He outperformed Biden in 2020 by 14 points. He said picking Shapiro it will boost there chances of winning by 30%. Kelly and Walz don't come close. PA has 19 elecoral votes. If you win PA the race is likely over for Trump. |
If the campaign truly thinks it's a toss-up (or worse) without him, then yeah, you almost have to do it. However, the poll today has Harris up 4 points there. If they think they can get PA without him, then I think Kelly is the preferable choice nationwide, and it likely delivers AZ too. |
Exactly. It will take more than just PA. It doesn't appear that Shapiro is necessarily required to get PA, and Kelly brings you more.
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32
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 10:50 am Post subject: | | | Whoever wins PA wins the election. 538 had PA as the tipping point for Dems before Biden dropped out. Take no chances.
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governator
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 10:54 am Post subject: | | | I thought she has the highest approval rating among the Trump/Vance/her?
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32
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 10:55 am Post subject: | | | Put those 19 electoral votes in your pocket and the path for Trump is narrow. And if she wins PA it's very likely WI and MI are in play too.
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tox
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 10:58 am Post subject: | | |
The most recent polling, since she's the nominee, seems much better. They haven't added the Ipsos/Reuters poll where she was +1 (43 favorable/ 42 unfavorable) but they added some other poll where she's also +1.I don't think her prior polling is doing her justice as she was being associated with Biden and now she is not. I also don't think the current honeymoon period polling will last as the vibes are really good and it's not clear they will stay. The NYT is already trying to do their "look how impartial we are, we'll make negatives stories of Kamala" thing which led them to "butter emails" HRC in 2016 |
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32
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 11:01 am Post subject: | | | | ChickenStu wrote: | | 32 wrote: | | Josh Shapiro is the clear cut choice according to Harry Enten on CNN. He outperformed Biden in 2020 by 14 points. He said picking Shapiro it will boost there chances of winning by 30%. Kelly and Walz don't come close. PA has 19 elecoral votes. If you win PA the race is likely over for Trump. |
If the campaign truly thinks it's a toss-up (or worse) without him, then yeah, you almost have to do it. However, the poll today has Harris up 4 points there. If they think they can get PA without him, then I think Kelly is the preferable choice nationwide, and it likely delivers AZ too. |
That was only one poll. According to 538 she's only up 44.6 to 44.2. https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1818337834698158171
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Omar Little
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 11:03 am Post subject: | | | The argument against Shapiro is that if she needs his popularity to win Pennsylvania, she’s likely losing one or both of Michigan and Wisconsin, not to mention Arizona. A broader appeal candidate (the question is whether that’s Kelly or Walz) closes the gaps in those states and Pennsylvania. Shapiro is probably the most comfortable pick from a working relationship perspective (they apparently know and like each other well and are sympatico on most issues), Kelly the least, and electorally that’s reversed. Walz’s strength is checking both boxes, albeit not as strongly on one or the other, although he’s starting to get traction electorally.
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Dr. Laker
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 11:05 am Post subject: | | | What is Trump's disapproval rating?
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Halflife
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Dr. Laker
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 11:10 am Post subject: | | | | Omar Little wrote: | | The argument against Shapiro is that if she needs his popularity to win Pennsylvania, she’s likely losing one or both of Michigan and Wisconsin, not to mention Arizona. A broader appeal candidate (the question is whether that’s Kelly or Walz) closes the gaps in those states and Pennsylvania. Shapiro is probably the most comfortable pick from a working relationship perspective (they apparently know and like each other well and are sympatico on most issues), Kelly the least, and electorally that’s reversed. Walz’s strength is checking both boxes, albeit not as strongly on one or the other, although he’s starting to get traction electorally. |
The Democratic Socialists are anti-Shapiro because of his stance on charter schools. They're niche, but very tied in to labor and produce a (bleep) ton of volunteers. Kelly, IMO, is the safest choice, but that Senate seat is key. I'm defaulting to Walz.
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ChickenStu
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 11:15 am Post subject: | | | | There's been a lot of money put on Beshear overnight, making it a 4-horse race now for VP. Current odds: Shapiro +175
Kelly +200
Beshear +475
Walz +475 Buttigieg is +2500, which are the same odds as Gary Peters. |
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tox
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 11:25 am Post subject: | | | | Wish Whitmer would just toss her name in the ring |
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ksmgf
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 11:26 am Post subject: | | | Most polls that Ive seen online are showing that is Harris up. I think she is winning the presidency in a landslide. |
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32
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 11:28 am Post subject: | | | Hypothetical: Even if she wins PA but loses WI and MI she still has a better path than Trump. NV, AZ, GA and NC are all still in play. I think she will win GA because of the big African American vote.
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Dr. Laker
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 11:30 am Post subject: | | | | ChickenStu wrote: | | There's been a lot of money put on Beshear overnight, making it a 4-horse race now for VP. Current odds: Shapiro +175
Kelly +200
Beshear +475
Walz +475 Buttigieg is +2500, which are the same odds as Gary Peters. |
I love Beshear, but he brings nothing to the table. He certainly won't bring Kentucky with him. I'm surprised there's no talk of giving the nod to the senior Senator from Georgia.
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Omar Little
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 11:36 am Post subject: | | | | Dr. Laker wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | There's been a lot of money put on Beshear overnight, making it a 4-horse race now for VP. Current odds: Shapiro +175
Kelly +200
Beshear +475
Walz +475 Buttigieg is +2500, which are the same odds as Gary Peters. |
I love Beshear, but he brings nothing to the table. He certainly won't bring Kentucky with him. I'm surprised there's no talk of giving the nod to the senior Senator from Georgia. |
Won’t do any good. The senators from Georgia already pulled all available support and some depressed GOP turnout to win their seats. Huge ground game win for Dems but not a presidential mandate. And you’d lose that senate seat if you win the White House.
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Omar Little
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 11:39 am Post subject: | | | Robert Reich
@RBReich
Just four companies in the U.S. control:85% of beef processing 80% of corn seed distribution 77% of fertilizer production 69% of grocery sales Wondering why food prices are so high? Minimal competition means maximized price-gouging.
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unleasHell
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unleasHell
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tox
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 11:49 am Post subject: | | |
51.9% is crazy good by Trump standards. There might actually be a post-assassination attempt & post-convention bump. |
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Omar Little
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 11:49 am Post subject: | | | Worth noting that those are heavily weighted toward the GOP by the Harris polling.
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32
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| | Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 12:35 pm Post subject: | | | He has made huge gains in the prediction markets today. | Quote: | | New on @MSNBC: Kentucky Gov. AndyBeshearis officially being vetted by the Harris campaign as a potential vice presidential nominee pick, according to two sources familiar with the process.@NBCNews |
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